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English-News GE 2017

UK election – the regional battlegrounds

The picture from the key battlegrounds of the UK election shows that the Conservatives increased their vote everywhere. The problem for Theresa May? Labour did too.

London

Why it is important: Taken as a whole, the British capital is younger and more diverse than any other region in the country. As a result it is strong ground for the left-wing party Labour, who generally performed better with younger voters and ethnic minorities. London is not simple though: many of the constituencies in the wealthier south east of the capital such as Richmond and Twickenham are a fight between the centrist Liberal Democrat and Conservative candidates with noise pollution from Heathrow airport one of the major issues. Meanwhile, the right-wing nationalists Ukip had strong support in the last election in former industrial constituencies in the east of the capital such as Dagenham North and Rainham.

What happened: The Conservatives will be looking at their result in London thinking it could have been way worse. The party managed to hold onto most of its seats in the capital despite significant rises in the Labour vote creating quite a few close contests. In the end Labour won three Conservative seats (maybe four if, as has been reported, Kensington switches hands). The Liberal Democrats also won two Conservative seats in the city's south west, but very narrowly lost Richmond back to former London Mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith.

Wales

Why it is important: Labour have won more votes and seats in Wales than any other party in every election since 1922. Left-wing politics have long been strong in both the former coal-mining heartlands as well as the urban centres in the south. However, there were signs that this might be about to change with both Ukip and the Conservatives making progress in recent elections. In the 2015 election Labour lost Gower, a seat which it had held since 1910 to the Conservatives, and a poll in April this year suggested that Theresa May’s party were on track to win the most seats in Wales, ruining Labour’s streak. The Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru, though not as strong as their equivalents in Scotland, are an important party too.

What happened: Labour was supported by nearly half (48.9%) of Welsh voters, winning it three seats from the Conservatives. The Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru will also be celebrating an extra seat, which they won from the Liberal Democrats.

Midlands

Why it is important: The middle of England is a mixture of rural, traditionally Conservative seats and large, diverse urban centres such as Birmingham, Stoke-on-Trent and Derby that Labour generally have more of a chance with. The problem Labour has here is that many of those cities voted to leave the European Union and the Conservatives are generally seen as stronger on Brexit, according to opinion polling.

What happened: Just under half of voters backed the Conservative in middle England, which would usually mean a landslide. Unfortunately for Theresa May, Labour managed to increase their vote share by around ten percentage points. Eight seats did change hands, but they did not change the big picture - four went from Labour to the Conservatives and four went from the Conservatives to Labour.

North East

Why it is important: The idea of the Conservatives making big gains in Labour’s north-east heartlands would probably have been dismissed as a joke as recently as two years ago. In many parts of the region the idea of voting Conservative has been taboo since Margaret Thatcher’s government and the region’s miners clashed during strikes in the mid-1980s. However, the anti-immigration and anti-EU stance of Nigel Farage’s Ukip built up significant support in the region. After last year’s referendum and Farage’s resignation as leader, Ukip have collapsed in the polls with signs suggesting that most of those voters are now backing Theresa May. The prime minister was seen making campaigning stops in areas such as Hartlepool, where Labour has been in power since the 1960s.

What happened: After all the hype and despite the Conservatives attracting over a third of voters (nearly 10 percentage points up on their result in 2015), the final score was 1-1. Labour lost one seat to the Conservatives and the Conservatives lost one back to Labour.

Scotland

Why it is important: The referendum on Scottish independence had a huge effect on politics in the country. Despite the majority of voters backing remaining in the UK, the Scottish National Party saw a huge increase in support. At the 2015 election the SNP won 56 out of the 59 seats in Scotland and 50% of the vote share. The big loser that year was Labour, who previously held 40 of the seats that went to the SNP. Scotland voted strongly to remain in the EU and first minister Nicola Sturgeon signalled earlier this year that she wanted to hold another independence referendum before Brexit happens. However, polls suggest that many voters do not want to vote again on a subject they dealt with two years ago and the Conservative party were hoping to make gains here with their strong support for unionism.

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What happened: The Scottish National Party had a bad night, with a big rise in support for Conservatives north of the border. The nationalists lost 21 of their seats: 12 to the Conservatives, six to Labour and 3 to the Lib Dems. The SNP's vote share of 36.9% was down 13.1 percentage points from 2015.

Northern Ireland

Why it is important: The constitutional question of a united Ireland has been brought to the forefront in Northern Ireland ahead of this election. There have been questions about whether people will be able to travel freely through the border to the south, an arrangement set up after the Good Friday agreement, when Brexit happens. Sinn Féin, which supports a united Ireland, performed well in March’s elections to the Northern Irish assembly. However, the Democratic Unionist Party, who want to remain part of the United Kingdom, was hoping to remain the largest party.

What happened: This election yielded a fascinating result for Northern Ireland. The Democratic Unionist Party won ten seats out of the eighteen available in the region, with their vote share of 36% up 10 percentage points on the last election. The party has struck a deal with Theresa May's Conservatives to form a new coalition government. Sinn Féin, whose MPs refuse to take part in the Westminster Parliament, won three more seats to take their total to seven. 

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